Hunter
01/03/22
State economists say the severity of this year’s predicted economic downturn is hard to pinpoint, but they agree that it’s going to be briefer than originally feared.
The Gazette reports that the Iowa Revenue Estimating Conference met in December and predicted a slight dip in state revenues, but they don’t see any signs of a future recession. Nevertheless, they say the 2023 economy will prove difficult.
The Conference said that state revenue is predicted to top $9.62 billion in fiscal year 2023, a 1.9 percent drop from fiscal 2022 but less than the 2.7 percent drop the Estimating Conference predicted in October.
When fiscal year 2024 starts in July, the panel predicts minimal revenue growth of just a tenth of a percent.
Iowa State University economics professor Peter Orazem says Iowa is still suffering from worker shortages, and hasn’t been able to replace lost workers at the same rates as other states. In the past, the immigrant population has been able to fill those gaps, but pandemic border closures and what Orazem calls the state’s unwelcoming stance towards them have kept immigrants from coming to Iowa.
Late last year, the Kirkwood Community College’s Skills 2024 Survey showed area employers have the same concerns, citing a lack of qualified candidates, small labor pools for open roles and recruitment and retention struggles.